Guidance and support for advisers when predicting grades.
UCAS predicted grades are a key part of the application process, serving as an indicator of a student’s potential.
We know that this is a complex issue, with many factors influencing predicted and achieved grades; and acknowledge that we are unlikely to move to a situation where students always achieve their UCAS predicted grades. Whilst UCAS predicted grades in 2025 were similar to 2024, there has been a longer-term trend which has seen the gap between the predicted grades used for university and college admission and achieved grades widen. This is especially the case with the highest grades, with around half of UK 18-year-olds predicted AAA and above in 2024. In comparison 26% of accepted applicants secured AAA and above last summer. We’ve worked with a group of advisers and providers to update our guidance to help you with this process.
UCAS is undertaking work to bring greater transparency to higher education admissions and to provide teachers and advisers with better information to support students in making their choices.
Last year UCAS launched its historical entry grades data, which allows students, along with their teachers and advisers, to see both offer rates and the historic grades held by previous successful applicants on admission to a particular course, in addition to the listed entry requirements published by universities. As of May 2025, the tool has been used over two million times. We have had some very positive feedback on its use, with 88% of students finding the information extremely or very useful, and 78% feeling more motivated to apply for courses after viewing the data
Below you will find guidance to support you in issuing UCAS predicted grades, along with details of how you can access on your own UCAS predictions.
A UCAS predicted grade is the grade of qualification an applicant’s school or college believes they’re likely to achieve in positive circumstances.
These predicted grades are then used by universities and colleges, along with a range of other information, as part of the admissions process to help them understand an applicant’s potential.
Different universities and colleges use UCAS predicted grades in different ways as part of the consideration and offer-making process.
When universities and colleges receive achieved results, they will make a final decision on whether to accept a student, based on a variety of different factors.
UCAS historical grades on entry tool can help you understand the range of attainment by universities and colleges for their courses.
Predicted grades should be:
Comprehensive - UCAS predicted grades should be made for all pending e qualifications, unless the assessment method or structure of the qualification makes this not possible; not doing to do so can lead to complications or a delay in the application.
Achievable – whilst aspirational predicted grades can be motivational for students, they should be based on demonstrable evidence of performance.
Determined by professional judgement – your expertise and experience are vital in informing predictions.
Data-driven – while each centre will have its own process, you could look at past performance, internal assessments, or current student work to inform your predictions. The UCAS Predicted Grades Report available on the Adviser Portal may be useful in supporting evaluation and review of your processes.
Finalised by the point of submitting an application – providers and colleges may only consider the predicted grades received as part of the UCAS application. While they will make every effort to accommodate genuine errors in data entry, this may not always be possible for highly selective courses, and reconsideration of an application could be subject to a course still being open, or places still being available.
We recognise that in some circumstances you may not have the in-depth knowledge of the student or their potential; you can provide additional context around this in Section 2 of the reference.
“Many schools have a clear process for predicting grades for UCAS applications, which is shared with staff, students, and parents. Every school or college might approach this slightly differently, but having a transparent policy really helps everyone stay informed.”
Suzie Rees, Regional Adviser Lead, UCAS
If you're just getting started, here are a few key things to consider:
For the 2026 entry cycle, UCAS is launching a pilot initiative to provide schools and colleges access to their own individual UCAS Predicted Grades Report. The report will provide advisers with the ability to benchmark their UCAS predictions. We hope this might be of use in informing 2026 UCAS predictions.
These reports have been designed following extensive consultation with advisers, schools, universities and colleges, and the wider sector. We would very much welcome feedback on how we can make these more useful to you.
This first iteration of the report includes 2024 End of Cycle data on 18-year-old applicants domiciled in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland who have at least three predicted and achieved A levels from their school or college. We plan to expand the range of qualifications included in future iterations of the report.
Hear from Sam Sykes, Lead for Schools and Colleges at UCAS, and Olivia McLaren, Director of Learner Journey at St David's Catholic College, Cardiff, as they talk you through the pilot for the predicted grades reports.
“I'm delighted that UCAS have been developing these reports to support the issuing of predicted grades for university admissions. I think that this will really help with refining, reviewing and reflecting on our processes, and ultimately helping applicants to apply with their predicted grades.”
Documents accompanying this report:
These three short videos will explain:
How to use the summary report
How to use prediction bands across the sector - sections A to C
How to use predicted grades by subject - section D
We've created good practice guidance on predicted grades for providers.
Please contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk.
It will be available to request up until 4 June 2025 deadline.
The report will remain available on the Adviser portal; however, we recommend you download and make use of the report to inform your 2026 UCAS predictions.
Please contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk.
No – reports will not be shared with providers by UCAS; however, you may choose to share details of your process for predicting grades as part of the reference.
You can share this with anyone within your Centre.
You can watch our videos here to understand how to use the reports.
This is currently a pilot version; UCAS will monitor the use of these reports and use this to inform future developments.
We also plan to expand the range of qualifications included in future iterations of the report.
Eligibility to receive the report is a minimum of one 18-year-old applicant(s) domiciled in England, Wales and Northern Ireland with at least three predicted and achieved A levels from a registered Centre school or college).
UCAS has published a briefing, which outlines current trends in UCAS predicted grades and shares findings from our modelling work into differences across applicant groups.
It will be contained within the data & reporting tile in the portal (A single link named: RegisteredCentre_PredictedGrades_2024_Cycle_10062025.pdf)
You may not be able to view this if you don’t have the correct permissions, please speak to your registered Centre correspondent.
If you are the registered Centre correspondent, please contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk, who will be able to assist.
Please contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk to discuss.
You can talk about how your Centre predicts grades to UCAS in section 1 of the reference.
Yes, we understand parents are key supporters of students during the application process and hope the reports will support more informed discussions.
Providers use UCAS predicted grades in a variety of ways to support assessment of student applications and potential. Each provider should have an admissions statement or policy which includes use of UCAS predicted grades.
Contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk in the first instance.
We do not anticipate that providers will make changes to their admissions strategies during this pilot period.
For the 2026 entry cycle, UCAS is launching a pilot initiative to provide schools and colleges access to their own individual UCAS Predicted Grades Report. The report will provide advisers with the ability to benchmark their UCAS predictions. We hope this might be of use in informing 2026 UCAS predictions.
It is not intended for performance or accountability purposes.