The report explores the factors associated with the differences between predicted and achieved grades, using the predictions and results from 600,000 English 18 year old UCAS applicants over the period 2010 to 2015.
The factors considered in the report include the prior attainment at GCSE relative to predicted grades, characteristics of the applicants, and characteristics of the choices they made through UCAS – including the type of firm offer they held.
Overall, the report finds that the proportion of applicants achieving their best three predicted grades has fallen over recent years. In 2015, just over half of all English 18 year old applicants missed their predicted attainment over three A levels by two or more grades; an increase of 34% since 2010.
The report also finds that the most important factors in doing well against a particular set of predictions are strong GCSE results and the mix of A level subjects studied. The interplay of GCSE results and the level of the predicted grades is the single most important factor. An applicant with predicted grades of ABB is almost 50% more likely to miss by two grades or more if they have GCSE results averaging A/B rather than A*/A.
View and download a pre-release copy of the report ahead of publication.