Predicted grades – what you need to know for entry this year
Guidance and support for advisers when predicting grades.
UCAS predicted grades are a key part of the application process, serving as an indicator of a student’s potential.
We know that this is a complex issue, with many factors influencing predicted and achieved grades; and acknowledge that we are unlikely to move to a situation where students always achieve their UCAS predicted grades. Whilst UCAS predicted grades in 2025 were similar to 2024, there has been a longer-term trend which has seen the gap between the predicted grades used for university and college admission and achieved grades widen. This is especially the case with the highest grades, with around half of UK 18-year-olds predicted AAA and above in 2025. In comparison 26% of accepted applicants secured AAA and above last summer. We’ve worked with a group of advisers and providers to update our guidance to help you with this process.
UCAS is undertaking work to bring greater transparency to higher education admissions and to provide teachers and advisers with better information to support students in making their choices.
In 2024, UCAS launched its historical entry grades data, which allows students, along with their teachers and advisers, to see both offer rates and the historic grades held by previous successful applicants on admission to a particular course, in addition to the listed entry requirements published by universities. As of May 2026, the tool has been used over 5.6 million times. We have had some very positive feedback on its use, with 82% of students finding the information extremely or very useful, and 70% feeling more motivated to apply for courses after viewing the data.
Below you will find guidance to support you in issuing UCAS predicted grades, along with details of how you can access your own UCAS predictions.
What are UCAS predicted grades?
A UCAS predicted grade is the grade of qualification an applicant’s school or college believes they’re likely to achieve in positive circumstances.
These predicted grades are then used by universities and colleges, along with a range of other information, as part of the admissions process to help them understand an applicant’s potential.
Different universities and colleges use UCAS predicted grades in different ways as part of the consideration and offer-making process.
When universities and colleges receive achieved results, they will make a final decision on whether to accept a student, based on a variety of different factors.
UCAS historical grades on entry tool can help you understand the range of attainment by universities and colleges for their courses.
Principles for predicting grades for UCAS
Predicted grades should be:
- Achievable – whilst aspirational predicted grades can be motivational for students, they should be based on demonstrable evidence of performance.
- Objective and data-driven – while each centre will have its own process, you could look at past performance, internal assessments, or current student work to inform your predictions. The UCAS Predicted Grades Report available in the adviser portal may be useful in supporting evaluation and review of your processes.
- Comprehensive – UCAS predicted grades should be made for all pending qualifications, unless the assessment method or structure of the qualification makes this not possible; not doing to do so can lead to complications or a delay in the application.
- Determined by professional judgement – your expertise and experience are vital in informing predictions. Predicted grades should be set independently of an applicant's university or college choices; providers and colleges place differing levels of importance on predicted grades and use them in a variety of ways throughout the application process.
- Finalised by the point of submitting an application – universities and colleges may only consider the predicted grades received as part of the UCAS application. While they will make every effort to accommodate genuine errors in data entry, this may not always be possible for highly selective courses, and reconsideration of an application could be subject to a course still being open, or places still being available.
We recognise that in some circumstances you may not have the in-depth knowledge of the student or their potential; you can provide additional context around this in section 2 of the reference.
Guidance to support internal processes
Many schools have a clear process for predicting grades for UCAS applications, which is shared with staff, students, and parents. Every school or college might approach this slightly differently, but having a transparent policy really helps everyone stay informed.
Suzie Rees, Regional Adviser Lead, UCAS
If you're just getting started, here are a few key things to consider:
- Timely engagement – students should be given their likely UCAS predicted grades in time to inform their research about which courses and providers may be suitable choices for them. To support timely engagement, it is important to set clear expectations and make your approach to predicting grades transparent and available as early as possible – ideally before any assessments that may inform them, so these expectations can underpin ongoing conversations with students right through to the final submission of predicted grades.
- Supporting student understanding of predicted grades – giving students the opportunity to reflect on their predicted grades can support a more complete picture of their progress, including any extenuating circumstances. This context can be captured in section 2 of the reference.
- Coordination across departments – the process requires a predicted grade for every formal qualification undertaken by the student. Therefore, in some instances, teachers will need to enter one or more predictions. It may be useful to host a staff training session, to promote consistency of approach, and to consider the cumulative impact of the predictions, especially where a wider range of subjects are studied.
- Review – the UCAS predicted grade report may support you in reviewing predicted grades, both overall and at a subject level based on your centre’s previous performance.
Predicted grades report
Last year, UCAS piloted the predicted grades reports in response to demand for greater support and transparency in the admissions process.
Over 1,100 centres signed up for the reports in the pilot, with schools and colleges reporting that the reports were useful in informing UCAS predicted grades for students. Following positive feedback, UCAS will now publish the reports annually, building on from the feedback gathered since the pilot phase.
The reports include 2025 end of cycle data on 18-year-old applicants domiciled in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland who have at least three predicted and achieved A levels from their school or college.
Sample report
Below is a sample report to understand how your report may look and the information and data included within the reports.
How to use the predicted grades reports
This short video will explain how to interpret your reports:
Provider good practice guidance
We've created good practice guidance on predicted grades for providers.
Frequently asked questions
What is the purpose of the report?
UCAS is providing schools and colleges access to their own individual predicted grades report. The report will provide advisers with the ability to benchmark their UCAS predictions. We hope this might be of use in informing 2027 UCAS predictions.
It is not intended for performance or accountability purposes.
Will the reports be shared with providers?
No – reports will not be shared with providers by UCAS. However, you may choose to share details of your process on how your centre predicts grades to UCAS in section 1 of the reference.
What is the eligibility criteria to receive the reports and how do I access them?
The reports are available to download in the UCAS adviser portal.
Reports have been made available to all centres with a minimum of one 18-year-old applicant domiciled in England, Wales or Northern Ireland, with at least three predicted and achieved A levels from a registered centre school or college.
Centres in Scotland and overseas with students studying at least one A level and domiciled in England, Northern Ireland or Wales are also eligible to receive a report.
It will be contained within the data & reporting tile in the portal (A single link named): RegisteredCentre_PredictedGrades_2025_Cycle_10062025.pdf)
You may not be able to view this if you don’t have the correct permissions – please speak to your registered centre correspondent.
If you are the registered centre correspondent, please contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk.
Can I share the report with other colleagues at my centre?
Yes, you can share the report with anyone within your centre. You have two options:
Download a PDF copy to share with senior leaders or heads of department, or
Grant relevant staff access via Staff Management, allowing them to view the report (and any others you have subscribed to) in the adviser portal.
Can I share these with parents?
Yes, we understand parents are key supporters of students during the application process and hope the reports will support more informed discussions.
Is there a charge to receive this report?
No, the report is provided free of charge to all eligible centres.
How do I use these reports?
Watch our video to understand how to use the reports.
Will additional qualifications be added to predicted grade reports in future cycles?
We will continue to monitor the use of these reports and use this to inform future developments. We also plan to expand the range of qualifications included in future iterations of the report.
What year is the data in the report from?
Most sections use data from 2025 only.
However, sections B and C cover the five-year time series (2021 – 2025 cycles). It covers applicants applying within the application cycle rather than the academic year they are intending to start their studies (which might be different with deferrals, early start dates, etc.)
How can I understand what is happening across other schools and colleges?
We have published a briefing, which outlines trends in UCAS predicted grades and shares findings from our modelling work into differences across applicant groups.
I have access to my reports for the 2025 cycle. Why can’t I see the predicted grade report for 2024?
During the pilot phase of reporting, centres were required to opt in to receive a copy of the predicted grade report for the 2024 cycle. If your centre did not opt in, this report will not be available in the adviser portal.
From 2025 onwards, there is no longer a requirement to opt in, and all future reports will automatically be saved and accessible in the portal.
I don’t think our centre data is right – what do I do?
Please contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk to discuss any queries you may have regarding the content of your predicted grades report.
How do universities and colleges use UCAS predicted grades?
Universities and colleges use UCAS predicted grades in a variety of ways to support assessment of student applications and potential. Each university and college should have an admissions statement or policy which includes use of UCAS predicted grades.
Certain subjects aren’t listed specifically in the report, how can we tell what groupings of subjects are used?
In Section D of your report, you can examine prediction bands for each UCAS predicted grade by subject. This allows you to compare the proportion of applicants in each band with sector benchmarks.
The notes accompanying each subject comparison provide detailed guidance on how subject titles have been grouped.
I would like to ask about the 'health care' reference in our report on page 4 as we do not run this – I assume this 'clusters' a type of subject?
Individual subjects are placed into subject groups broadly based on the Joint Council for Qualifications A level subjects and existing subject titles.
In some cases, subjects can fall into both their own subject group and a larger subject group. For example, 'Psychology' also falls into the 'Health and Social Care Subject' group.
For most subject groups, there are notes under the tables in Section D to explain the grouping and if a subject contributes to another subject group.
Does the data include under 18s and deferred applicants?
The report covers 18-year-olds domiciled in England, Wales and Northern Ireland only. Age is aligned to school year – i.e. those aged 18 at the end of the school year in which they are applying.
Applicants deferring entry are included aligned to the application cycle in which they are applying – i.e. those applying in the 2025 cycle deferring entry until 2026, will be reported against the 2025 cycle.
How can I compare with other centres?
The predicted grades reports enable you to compare your centre’s performance with sector averages. The sector average provides a useful benchmark, helping you assess your UCAS predictions against national trends.
In addition, Section B shows your applications by prediction band over the past five years, while Section C presents the corresponding sector averages for the same period. Together, these sections allow you to compare your performance over time and identify patterns.
How can I compare this year’s data with last year’s? Do I need to download both reports?
All reports are available in the Data and Reporting section of your adviser portal.
The graphical and tabular content within these reports provides a clear way to review and compare your predictions over time.
Additionally, sections B and C include five years of prediction data, allowing you to track trends and benchmark your performance against the sector.
I no longer wish to receive the predicted grades report – can I opt out of receiving it?
Yes, please contact adviserhelp@ucas.ac.uk to confirm and your centre will be removed from the list for future cycles.
Briefing and analytical reports on predicted grades
Along with the Predicted Grades Reports last year, UCAS published a briefing which outlined the trends of UCAS predicted grades, providing national context through our modelling work into differences across applicant groups.
With this, UCAS published two analytical research pieces that offer further context on the trends of UCAS predicted grades.
The first research explores how the gap between predicted and achieved A level results differs between applicant groups.
The second report examines the relationship between achieving below UCAS predicted grades and acceptance to firm choice courses.
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